Notes on cases classification
On November 12, 2025 Department of State introduced new case status protection in CEAC system. New cases are protected behind a valid passport number / last name combination. For cases created/updated before that date it's still possible to query them using just the case number and using NA/NA as passport number / last name. However, as time goes by more and more cases are using the new protection measure making the data presented here incomplete. Cases that we know exist, but are no longer accessible have status
Dark in the raw data dumps and charts above.
Sometime around March 2020 CEAC database started showing cases that were undergoing Administrative Processing as Refused. That is "technically" a more accurate choice since it is a refusal under section 221(g) of the Immigration and Nationality Act. However, since most of those cases resolve to Issued after some time, for purpose of determining how many people are getting DV visa it's more convenient to keep the old classification. Fortunately, it's still possible to distinguish between a 221(g) refusal and other types of refusal if you consider the case status message in CEAC. There are two types of wording for refused cases:
- A U.S. consular officer has adjudicated and refused your visa application. Please see the letter you received at the interview.
- A U.S. consular officer has adjudicated and refused your visa application. Please follow any instructions provided by the consular officer. If you were informed by the consular officer that your case was refused for administrative processing, your case will remain refused while undergoing such processing...
This allows us to assume that the latter phrasing indicates 221(g) refusal. All charts and tables on this page follow this hypothesis during case classification. Additionally, in raw csv dumps there's now a new column
potentialAP that indicates wording in the CEAC status message. (0 - refusal, 1 - potential AP).